Short-term bullish, long-term bearish Hyperliquid: The bull argument: - regulation = awareness - regulation =/ permissionless trading (regarb, the real moat, is still in effect) - most traders have no idea that perpetual futures even exist. this will undoubtedly introduce Hyperliquid to more users - regulation is really just a dial that drives roadmap, but Hyperliquid needs to drive the dial, not Robinhood/CME. them investing in the Hyperliquid Policy center (run by ex-Variant CLO @jchervinsky, very bullish on this initative) - Jeff and co. are still the preeminent system architects of good perps infrastructure, which is valuable even if existing products become commoditized The bear argument: - perp legalization without stablecoin clarity means the margin/collateral layer is still murky for compliant institutions - Hyperliquid's core user (onchain degen) is a small TAM, and the users that legislation unlocks (e.g., options + future traders, institutions) will likely route through regulated wrappers before it reaches HL - Robinhood + CME can build a comprable retail trading product to Hyperliquid. they could easily have similar/greater depth of liquidity if Citadel were involved. this will likely force Hyperliquid fees to compress - traders + investors still don't care about custody and censorship. maybe eventually, but not today If I had to guess how this plays out on a 5 year time horizon, I'd say the pie for perps grows, Hyperliquid overall OI and volume increases but as a % of total perps volume shrinks signficantly, and margins compress due to offchain competition.