Feast and Concerns: Can Favorable Policies Sustain Market Volatility?
Hotcoin Research | October 20–24, 2025

Market Overview

The total cryptocurrency market capitalization currently stands at $3.75 trillion, with Bitcoin (BTC) accounting for 59.1% of the total, or approximately $2.21 trillion. The stablecoin market capitalization reached $308.3 billion, marking a 0.39% increase over the past seven days. The number of circulating stablecoins continues to grow, with USDT maintaining dominance at 59.27% of the total.

Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most recorded gains over the week, while a few posted minor losses. Notable performers include:

• H: +222.27% (7-day)
• AVNT: +51.05%
• FF: +38.24%
• VIRTUAL: +35.76%
• APE: +21.23%

In the ETF market, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded $446.5 million in net inflows, while U.S. Ethereum spot ETFs saw $243.5 million in net outflows this week.

Market Forecast (October 27–31, 2025)

• RSI: 52.11 (neutral range)
• Fear & Greed Index: 38 (fear range, slightly higher than last week)
• Altcoin Season Index: 37 (unchanged from last week)

Core Price Ranges

• BTC: $104,000–116,000
• ETH: $3,800–4,200
• SOL: $175–210

Macro & Market Outlook

The U.S. September core CPI (seasonally adjusted) came in at 0.2%, slightly below expectations. This eased market concerns, suggesting a steady upward trend in the coming week. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision on October 30 will be the key event to watch. While markets are pricing in a 99.6% probability of a 25 bps rate cut, investors should remain cautious of a potential “sell the news” reaction.

Investor Takeaways

• Monitor key price levels: Use the above support and resistance ranges as reference points. Look for buying opportunities near support and secure profits near resistance.
• Watch sentiment shifts: Market sentiment remains divided, with Bitcoin showing relative strength while altcoins experience higher volatility.
• Avoid chasing highs: Exercise caution during phases of extreme greed and focus on disciplined trading strategies.

Understanding the Present

Review of Major Events of the Week

1. Blockchain.com Explores SPAC Listing in the U.S.
   On October 20, CoinDesk reported that Blockchain.com, a cryptocurrency trading and wallet platform, is in talks to go public in the United States through a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC). According to sources familiar with the matter, the company has appointed Cohen & Company Capital as its advisor for the potential transaction.
2. Polymarket Targets $12–15 Billion Valuation in New Funding Round
   On October 23, Bloomberg reported that Polymarket, a leading prediction market platform, is in early-stage discussions with investors to raise capital at a valuation between $12 billion and $15 billion — more than ten times higher than its valuation just four months ago.
3. Trump Pardons Binance Founder CZ
   On October 23, The Wall Street Journal reported that U.S. President Trump has pardoned CZ (Changpeng Zhao), the founder of Binance. Sources indicate that CZ has been supporting Trump-linked crypto ventures for several months. The pardon, reportedly signed on Wednesday, follows Trump’s comments expressing sympathy with the “witch-hunt” narrative surrounding CZ and other industry figures.
4. Osprey Files Solana ETF Application with the SEC
   On October 23, according to a filing on the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) website, Osprey officially submitted an S-1 application for a Solana ETF, signaling growing institutional interest in the Solana ecosystem.
5. Bitcoin Breaks Above $110,000
   On October 25, Bitcoin rebounded above the $110,000 mark and is currently trading at $111,121, representing a 24-hour increase of 0.61%.
6. MicroStrategy Adds 168 BTC to Holdings
   MicroStrategy announced the purchase of an additional 168 BTC this week for approximately $19 million in cash. While the company remains the largest publicly traded holder of Bitcoin, this relatively small acquisition compared to past purchases suggests a more cautious approach at current historical price levels.

Macroeconomics

1. U.S. Inflation Data Slightly Below Expectations
   On October 24, data showed that the U.S. Core CPI for September rose 0.2% month-over-month, in line with expectations of 0.3% and matching the previous reading of 0.3%. The unadjusted CPI increased 3% year-over-year, the highest level since January 2025, but slightly below the market forecast of 3.1%.
2. Markets Expect Near-Certain Rate Cut in October
   On October 25, the Federal Reserve’s Rate Monitor indicated a 99.6% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in October, signaling strong market consensus for upcoming monetary easing.

ETFs

ETF Flows: Bitcoin Inflows, Ethereum Outflows
According to statistics, between October 20 and October 24, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded net inflows of $446.5 million.

As of October 24:

• GBTC (Grayscale) has seen total outflows of $24.57 billion, with current holdings of $19.045 billion.
• IBIT (BlackRock) remains dominant, holding $89 billion.
• The total market capitalization of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs stands at $150.255 billion.

In contrast, U.S. Ethereum spot ETFs experienced net outflows of $243.5 million over the same period.

Future Forecast

Event Announcements

1. Blockchain Life 2025 will take place in Dubai, UAE, from October 28–29, 2025.
2. Bitcoin MENA will be held at the Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Center (ADNEC) from December 8–9.
3. Solana Breakpoint 2025 is scheduled in Abu Dhabi from December 11–13.

Project Updates

1. Vultisig will hold its TGE on October 27.
2. The Ethereum Fusaka upgrade is scheduled for its final rehearsal on the Hoodi testnet on October 28.
3. ZEROBASE Season 1 token airdrop claims will close on December 31.

Important Events

1. The three-phase repayment period for Mt. Gox will expire on October 31.
2. Australia will release its Q3 CPI (year-over-year) data at 8:30 AM (local time) on October 29.
3. The Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate decision and monetary policy report at 9:45 PM (local time) on October 29.
4. The U.S. Federal Reserve will announce its October interest rate decision (upper limit) at 2:00 AM on October 30.
5. The European Central Bank (ECB) will release its interest rate decision at 9:15 PM on October 30.

Token Unlocks

1. Sign (SIGN) — Unlocking 290 million tokens on October 28, valued at approximately $11.81 million, representing 21.48% of the circulating supply.
2. Grass (GRASS) — Unlocking 181 million tokens on October 28, valued at approximately $78.81 million, representing 72.4% of the circulating supply.
3. Jupiter (JUP) — Unlocking 53.47 million tokens on October 28, valued at approximately $21.25 million, representing 1.72% of the circulating supply.
4. Zora (ZORA) — Unlocking 166 million tokens on October 30, valued at approximately $15.23 million, representing 4.55% of circulating supply.
5. Optimism (OP) — Unlocking 31.34 million tokens on October 31, valued at approximately $13.91 million, representing 1.71% of the circulating supply.

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Risk Disclaimer

The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and all investments involve risk.
Investors are strongly advised to evaluate these risks carefully and maintain a disciplined risk management strategy to protect their capital.

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