With Interest Rate Cuts Expected to Happen Soon, How Should We Allocate Our Assets? | Hotcoin Research, September 1–5, 2025

Cryptocurrency Market Performance

Currently, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization is $3.87 trillion, with Bitcoin (BTC) accounting for 58.09% at $2.24 trillion. Stablecoin market capitalization is $288.1 billion, up 1.7% over the past 7 days, with USDT accounting for 59.2%.

Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, a small number gained while most declined. Notable gains this week include M (+248.24%), PUMP (+38.69%), IP (+33.08%), SKY (+18.29%), and POL (+17.46%), all measured over the past 7 days.

Meanwhile, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded $250 million in net inflows, while U.S. Ethereum spot ETFs saw $787 million in net outflows.

Market Outlook (September 8–13):

The RSI is at 48.34, signaling a neutral to slightly bearish trend. The Fear & Greed Index stands at 49, higher than last week. While a Fed interest rate cut in September looks likely, seasonality matters — September is historically a weak month for crypto, suggesting the market may face some downside pressure.

• BTC Key Range: $107,000–$111,000 → Short-term traders may consider light long positions near support and light short positions near resistance.
• ETH Key Range: $4,200–$4,400 → Short-term traders may look to buy near support and sell near resistance, or follow the trend after a breakout.

Overall, the market is in a consolidation phase. Focus remains on strong performers such as SOL, which shows technical breakout potential, and XRP, supported by positive sentiment following its SEC lawsuit settlement.

A Recap of Major Events This Week

1. September 1 — Cryptocurrency officially entered Australia’s $2.8 trillion self-managed superannuation fund (SMSF) pool via self-managed retirement accounts.
2. September 1 — The Ethereum Foundation announced the planned end-of-life shutdown of the Holešky testnet.
3. September 2 — U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen stated that the Federal Reserve should remain independent, though it has made “many mistakes.” Fed governor nominee Milam is likely to take office before the September Fed meeting. Yellen also voiced confidence that the Supreme Court will uphold President Trump’s tariffs.
4. September 4 — According to The Information, Polymarket, the world’s largest prediction market, received CFTC approval and will soon return to the U.S. market.
5. September 4 — American Bitcoin (ABTC), a Trump family-backed mining company, surged 17% to $8.04 per share on its Nasdaq debut, hitting a high of $14 with over 29 million shares traded.
6. September 5 — Bitmine, the largest institutional Ethereum holder, added 48,225 ETH worth $207.54 million to its reserves.
7. September 5 — The U.S. SEC proposed a crypto safe harbor and broker-dealer reforms, potentially lowering regulatory risks for cryptocurrency companies operating in the U.S.
8. September 5 — Justin Sun transferred 50 million WLFI tokens from his address before it was blacklisted, leaving him with 545 million tokens valued at $102.3 million.

Macroeconomics

1. September 4 — U.S. initial jobless claims rose by 8,000 to 237,000 for the week ending August 30, the highest since June and above the 230,000 analyst forecast. Continuing claims held steady at 1.94 million.
2. September 4 — CME FedWatch data showed a 97.4% probability of a 25 bps Fed rate cut in September, with just 2.6% odds of a 50 bps cut.
3. September 5 — U.S. non-farm payrolls (seasonally adjusted) for August came in at 22,000, well below expectations of 75,000.

ETF

From September 1 to September 5, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $250 million in net inflows.

• As of September 5, GBTC (Grayscale) has seen total outflows of $23.961 billion, with current holdings at $19.91 billion.
• IBIT (BlackRock) remains the market leader, holding $83.778 billion.
• The total market capitalization of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs stands at $146.032 billion.

Meanwhile, U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs registered $787 million in net outflows during the same period.

Looking Ahead

Upcoming Events

1. September 16–19 — ETHCON 2025 will be held in Osaka, Japan, gathering the global Ethereum community to discuss protocol upgrades, ecosystem development, and the future of Web3.
2. September 22–28 — Korea Blockchain Week 2025 will take place in Seoul, South Korea.

Project Updates

1. September 10 — Bit Digital (Nasdaq-listed) will hold its shareholder meeting, proposing to increase authorized share capital from $3.5 million to $10.1 million to support its growth strategy, including Ethereum purchases.
2. September 11 — The claim period for the MITO Genesis airdrop by Mitosis ended at 21:00. The Mitosis Foundation confirmed that MITO tokens used for gas fees have been deposited into users’ registered claim addresses.

Key Events

1. September 11, 20:30 — The U.S. will release the August CPI annual rate (unadjusted).
2. September 11, 20:30 — The U.S. will release initial jobless claims for the week ending September 6 (in thousands).

Token Unlock

1. September 9 — Axie Infinity (AXS) will unlock 652,500 tokens, valued at approximately $1.55 million, representing 0.25% of the circulating supply.
2. September 11 — Aptos (APT) will unlock 11.3 million tokens, valued at approximately $48.97 million, representing 2.2% of the circulating supply.

About Us

Hotcoin Research, the core research and investment arm of Hotcoin Exchange, is dedicated to turning professional crypto analysis into actionable strategies. Our three-pillar framework — trend analysis, value discovery, and real-time tracking — combines deep research, multi-angle project evaluation, and continuous market monitoring.

Through our Weekly Insights and In-depth Research Reports, we break down market dynamics and spotlight emerging opportunities. With Hotcoin Selects — our exclusive dual-screening process powered by both AI and human expertise — we help identify high-potential assets while minimizing trial-and-error costs.

We also engage with the community through weekly livestreams, decoding market hot topics, and forecasting key trends. Our goal is to empower investors of all levels to navigate cycles with confidence and capture long-term value in Web3.

Risk Disclaimer

The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and all investments carry inherent risks. We strongly encourage investors to stay informed, assess risks thoroughly, and follow strict risk management practices to protect their assets.

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