Powell Signals Possible Rate Cuts Before Congress – BTC Outlook Cautiously Bullish
Hotcoin Research Market Insight: June 23–27, 2025

Cryptocurrency Market Performance

As of now, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies stands at $3.31 trillion, with BTC accounting for 64.8% (approximately $2.14 trillion). The market cap of stablecoins is $252.7 billion, up 0.36% over the past 7 days, with USDT comprising 62.47% of that.

This week, BTC showed a trend of upward consolidation and is currently priced at $108,000, while ETH remained in a trading range and is now at $2,494.

Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, only a few posted gains, while most saw declines. Notable weekly gainers include:

• SEI +31.68%
• PENGU +19.47%
• MOVE +39.06%
• DOG +22.29%

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net inflow of $2.216 billion, and U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs saw a net inflow of $283.8 million.
The Fear & Greed Index as of June 27 stands at 49, up from the previous week, reflecting 5 neutral days and 2 fearful days.

Market Outlook

Stablecoin issuance continued to increase this week. U.S. spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs both reported net inflows. BTC and ETH maintained a pattern of upward consolidation. The RSI stands at 47.9, indicating a neutral zone. Sentiment remains mostly neutral.

Importantly, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s congressional remarks hinted at the possibility of rate cuts if economic data remains stable, which uplifted market confidence, helping BTC climb back above $107,000.

In South Korea, lawmakers proposed a compliance amendment for digital assets. More listed companies are following MicroStrategy’s lead by adopting BTC as a strategic reserve. However, the probability of a July Fed rate cut remains low at 20.7%. If key data such as PCE stabilizes, a September rate cut could be on the table.

BTC price is projected to range between $103,000 and $109,000 next week. We recommend small-scale buying on dips at this stage.
Unless major macroeconomic shifts occur, the market is expected to stay range-bound until either the U.S. stablecoin bill is passed in August or the Fed initiates rate cuts, which may trigger larger rallies.
Next week, focus on updates regarding U.S. tariff agreements.

Key Weekly Events Recap

1. June 23: Circle’s market cap surpassed that of its issued stablecoin USDC.
2. June 24: U.S. President Donald Trump hailed the announced ceasefire between Iran and Israel as “a great day for the world,” calling it indefinite.
3. June 24: Binance founder CZ confirmed multiple firms are exploring a “BNB version of MicroStrategy” with a $100M investment via a listed company.
4. June 23: Eyenovia, Inc. (NASDAQ: EYEN) signed a securities purchase agreement for a $50M PIPE with institutional investors.
5. June 23: OKX, after returning to the U.S. in April, is considering a domestic IPO.
6. June 24: Guotai Junan International received approval from the HK SFC to upgrade its license to provide virtual asset trading and advisory services.
7. June 25: “SOL version of MicroStrategy” — DeFi Development Corp launched a WIF validator node, aiming to share staking income with its community.
8. June 26: Coinbase announced upcoming launch of US perpetual-style futures, designed to meet U.S. regulatory standards.
9. June 26: White House crypto policy advisor Bo Hines confirmed the U.S. is building infrastructure for a strategic BTC reserve.
10. June 27: Blockchain-based U.S. stock trading firm Dinari obtained broker-dealer registration, becoming the first tokenized stock platform to do so.

Macro Developments

1. June 25: Powell stated that future trade agreements could allow for rate cuts. On the same day, New York City proposed allowing municipal service payments via crypto.
2. June 26: Cboe BZX Exchange filed a 19b-4 for the Canary PENGU ETF with the SEC.
3. June 27: According to CME’s FedWatch:

• 79.3% chance of no rate cut in July,
• 20.7% chance of a 25bps cut.
• For September: 73.3% chance of a 25bps cut, 18.5% for 50bps.

1. June 27: South Korea’s Democratic Party proposed a bill to classify digital assets like BTC as underlying assets for ETFs and trust products.
2. June 26: Australian biotech firm Opyl launched a BTC treasury strategy via the DigitalX Bitcoin ETF (~2 BTC), backed by a $1.3M loan at 6.5% APR.
3. June 27: UK-listed Vinanz added 5.85 BTC, bringing total holdings to 65.03 BTC, purchased at an average above $98,200.
4. June 28: Trump stated the July 9 tariff deal deadline may be extended or shortened.

ETF

Between June 23–27, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw:

• Net inflow: $2.216 billion
• GBTC: Total outflow $23.203 billion, current holdings $19.786 billion
• IBIT (BlackRock): Holdings $74.066 billion
• Total market cap of U.S. BTC spot ETFs: $135.266 billion
• U.S. spot Ethereum ETF net inflow: $283.8 million

Looking Ahead

Upcoming Events

1. EthCC 8 — Cannes, France | June 30 — July 3, 2025
2. IVS2025 Kyoto — Kyoto, Japan | July 2–4, 2025

Project Updates

1. Circle Paymaster will waive fees until June 30, allowing USDC to be used for gas on Arbitrum and Base, with 10% gas surcharge thereafter.
2. Ethereum Foundation Devconnect Scholar Program closes June 30; 2025 cohort includes organizers, legal professionals, journalists, artists, developers.
3. Kita Nippon Spinning plans to enter crypto in early July after June 30 shareholder approval.
4. Lightchain AI, a decentralized AI marketplace, will launch its mainnet in July.
5. Web3 social platform Noice announced a 20B token community pool. First airdrop (2B tokens) begins July 4, followed by 4 monthly airdrops until November.

Regulatory Watch

1. June 30: Nigeria’s SEC to implement new crypto marketing rules. VASP & KOLs must be approved before promoting any digital asset. Violations may lead to fines of at least ₦10 million (~$6,400) or up to 3 years in prison.
2. California Digital Financial Assets Law: Effective soon, mandates crypto firms obtain a DFPI license, maintain 5 years of records including monthly general ledgers.
3. July 4, 2026 will mark the 250th anniversary of the signing of the U.S. Declaration of Independence.

Token Unlocks

About Us

As the central research hub of the Hotcoin ecosystem, Hotcoin Research delivers professional analysis and forward-looking insights for global crypto asset investors. We have established a comprehensive three-pronged service framework — trend analysis, value discovery, and real-time tracking — integrating in-depth cryptocurrency industry trend research, a multi-faceted project evaluation framework, and 24/7 market monitoring.

These services are further enhanced by our biweekly Emerging Coin Selection Live Strategy Sessions and daily blockchain headlines updates, offering precise market insights and actionable strategies tailored for investors of all experience levels.

By leveraging advanced data analytics models and a robust industry network, we empower novice investors to build a solid understanding of the market while helping institutional players identify and capture alpha opportunities.

Together, we navigate the rapidly evolving crypto landscape, leveraging data-driven decision-making and strategic resource integration to seize value-growth opportunities in the Web3 era.

Risk Disclaimer

The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and all investments carry inherent risks. We strongly advise investors to thoroughly assess these risks and adhere to a strict risk management framework to safeguard their funds.

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