The Fed Holds Rates Steady in June — Market Moves in Narrow Range

Hotcoin Research Market Insights: June 16–20, 2025

Cryptocurrency Market Performance

As of now, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization stands at $3.34 trillion, with BTC dominance at 61.55%, equivalent to $2.06 trillion. The stablecoin market cap is $251.7 billion, showing a 7-day increase of 0.33%, with USDT accounting for 62.23%.

This week, BTC price fluctuated within a range, currently trading at $106,000. ETH also showed range-bound movement, with a current price of $2,555.

Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, a minority experienced gains while most declined. Notable 7-day gainers include:

• AERO: +40.29%
• KAIA: +27.7%
• T: +24.32%
• PNUT: +11.06%

During the week:

• US Bitcoin Spot ETFs saw net inflows of $1.0454 billion
• US Ethereum Spot ETFs had net inflows of $40.3 million

As of June 20, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index was at 48, lower than the previous week, indicating neutral sentiment throughout the past 7 days.

Market Outlook

Stablecoins continue to expand this week, and both Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs recorded net inflows. Despite this, BTC and ETH remained range-bound. The RSI index stands at 40.86, indicating neutral momentum. The release of the June FOMC rate decision met expectations, thus prices showed no significant volatility. The Fear & Greed Index also remained in the neutral zone.

Although institutions and public companies continue to accumulate BTC, underlying selling pressure remains, and community sentiment has yet to pick up. In the short term, the market lacks strong upward momentum. BTC is expected to trade between $100,000–$105,000 next week. Cautious accumulation on dips is advised.

Unless there is a major macroeconomic policy shift in June or July, the market is likely to continue sideways consolidation until:

• The US Stablecoin Act is officially enacted in August, or
• The Fed starts cutting rates

We are currently in a “low-volume trading period” — a good time to watch for opportunities in new coins. Hotcoin continues to offer on-chain “wealth codes” worth tracking.

Weekly Highlights

1. June 15 — Michael Saylor once again shared a Bitcoin Tracker update on X, stating “Bigger Orange Dot, Better.” Such posts are usually followed by announcements of BTC accumulation by MicroStrategy.
2. June 16 — TRON will go public via a reverse merger with Nasdaq-listed SRM Entertainment. The deal is managed by Dominari Securities, a boutique investment bank linked to Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump.
3. June 18 — The US Senate passed the landmark GENIUS Act, aimed at fostering the growth of the crypto industry — a historic lobbying victory. The vote passed 68–30, with support from 18 Democrats alongside most Republicans. The bill, led by Senator Bill Hagerty (R-TN), establishes a regulatory framework for USD-pegged stablecoins.
4. June 18 — JPMorgan launched a pilot for its new token JPMD, representing USD deposits on a blockchain related to Coinbase, signaling deeper moves into digital assets.
5. June 18 — The VanEck Solana Spot ETF (VSOL) was listed on the DTCC website. Although this does not constitute regulatory approval, it follows the standard listing process for ETFs.
6. June 17 — Coinbase applied for SEC approval to offer stock trading services on the blockchain.
7. June 19 — Linda Yaccarino, CEO of X, said users will soon be able to invest and trade directly on the platform, which is also exploring credit/debit card integration.
8. June 20 — UK-based fintech giant Revolut is actively exploring launching its own stablecoin. Serving 55 million users across 160 countries and 500,000 businesses, Revolut was valued at $48 billion and launched the EU-focused platform Revolut X in 2024.
9. June 20 — Plasma is preparing to launch its mainnet by late summer, optimized for stablecoin transactions.
10. June 19 — Trump-affiliated company World Liberty Financial reduced its stake from 60% to 40% over the past 11 days, based on an analysis of its website filings.
11. June 19 — A massive data breach exposed over 16 billion login credentials from major online platforms such as Apple, Google, and Facebook, posing a serious risk to crypto holders.

Macro Developments

1. June 19 — The Federal Reserve held interest rates at 4.25%–4.50%, marking its fourth consecutive meeting with no change — in line with expectations.
2. June 19 — The Fed’s dot plot shows an expected 50 basis point rate cut in 2025, but only 25 bps in 2026, down from a previously projected 50 bps. Both 2026 and 2027 are forecast to see only 25 bps cuts each.
3. June 19 — The Bank of England also held rates at 4.25%, a two-year high, in line with expectations.
4. June 18 — Canadian asset manager 3iQ launched the 3iQ XRP ETF (XRPQ) on the Toronto Stock Exchange, with 0% management fee for the first six months. It’s available to qualified investors in compliance with local laws.
5. June 17 — Canadian public company LQWD Technologies Corp. announced it purchased 5 BTC, bringing its total holdings to approximately 166 BTC.

ETF Update

From June 16–20, US Bitcoin Spot ETFs recorded a net inflow of $1.0454 billion.

As of June 20:

• GBTC (Grayscale) outflows totaled $23.197 billion, current holdings at $19.126 billion
• IBIT (BlackRock) holdings stand at $70.27 billion
• Total US Bitcoin Spot ETF market cap: $128.573 billion

US Ethereum Spot ETF net inflow: $40.3 million

Looking Ahead

Upcoming Events

1. NFT NYC 2026 — June 23–25, New York City, USA
2. Permissionless IV — June 24–26, New York City, USA
3. EthCC 8 — June 30–July 3, Cannes, France
4. IVS2025 KYOTO — July 2–4, Kyoto, Japan

Project Updates

1. Socios.com (Chiliz) will launch the DOJO Fan Token with e-sports team Ninjas in Pyjamas. The FTO is scheduled for June 24, with rewards tied to NIP’s loyalty program.
2. Pendle’s Cygnus stablecoin pool for wcgUSD matures on June 26.
3. Vanadi Coffee SA, a Spanish café chain, will seek board approval on June 29 for a BTC reserve strategy, planning to invest over $1.1 billion. It has already made an initial $500,000 BTC purchase (5 BTC).

Key Events

1. June 23 — Bank of Korea (BOK) Governor Lee Chang-yong will meet with commercial bank CEOs to discuss KRW-based stablecoin issuance.
2. June 24, 10:00 PM (ET) — Fed Chair Powell to deliver the semiannual monetary policy testimony to the House Financial Services Committee.
3. June 26, 8:30 PM (ET) — US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending June 21 to be released.
4. June 27, 8:30 PM (ET) — US Core PCE Price Index (YoY) for May to be published.

Token Unlocks

1. Eigenlayer (EIGEN) — Unlocking 1.29 million tokens (~$1.43M) on June 25 (0.42% of circulating supply)
2. IOTA (IOTA) — Unlocking 15.1 million tokens (~$2.42M) on June 25 (0.39% of supply)
3. Venom (VENOM) — Unlocking 59.13 million tokens (~$9.58M) on June 25 (2.84% of supply)
4. Moca Network (MOCA) — Unlocking 2.43 million tokens (~$173K) on June 27 (0.08% of supply)

About Us

As the central research hub of the Hotcoin ecosystem, Hotcoin Research delivers professional analysis and forward-looking insights for global crypto asset investors. We have established a comprehensive three-pronged service framework — trend analysis, value discovery, and real-time tracking — integrating in-depth cryptocurrency industry trend research, a multi-faceted project evaluation framework, and 24/7 market monitoring.

These services are further enhanced by our biweekly Emerging Coin Selection Live Strategy Sessions and daily blockchain headlines updates, offering precise market insights and actionable strategies tailored for investors of all experience levels.

By leveraging advanced data analytics models and a robust industry network, we empower novice investors to build a solid understanding of the market while helping institutional players identify and capture alpha opportunities.

Together, we navigate the rapidly evolving crypto landscape, leveraging data-driven decision-making and strategic resource integration to seize value-growth opportunities in the Web3 era.

Risk Disclaimer

The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and all investments carry inherent risks. We strongly advise investors to thoroughly assess these risks and adhere to a strict risk management framework to safeguard their funds.

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