Post-Holiday Market Recovery, AI and Desci Lead New Year Gains | Hotcoin Research Market Insight: December 30, 2025 — January 3, 2025

Cryptocurrency Market Performance

The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is currently $3.4 trillion, with BTC making up 56.33% ($1.92 trillion). The market capitalization of stablecoins is $20.58 billion, with a 7-day growth of 0.27%, and USDT accounts for 66.79% of this.

This week, BTC experienced fluctuating upward movement, currently priced at $97,905. ETH also showed upward fluctuation, now priced at $3,586. Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most saw declines, with a few exceptions: ZEREBRO up 90.02% in 7 days, SPX up 62.36%, DEXE up 46.87%, and FARTCOIN up 64.64%.

This week, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $255.3 million, while U.S. Ethereum spot ETFs experienced a net outflow of $72 million. The “Fear & Greed Index” on January 3 was at 73 (lower than last week), with market sentiment over the past 7 days categorized as “greed.”

Market Forecast: Post-Christmas, cryptocurrency market liquidity has begun to recover. This week, the market experienced fluctuating upward movement. The AI and Desci sectors showed significant gains, but ETF inflows remain moderate, with stablecoins seeing slight increases. There is a high probability that the U.S. Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates in January, and the market is expected to continue warming up next week, although explosive growth will take more time. Focus should be on the AI and Desci sectors this week.

Key Events Review

1. Dec 28: Nick Timiraos, a prominent journalist for The Wall Street Journal, reported that the Federal Reserve is reevaluating the impact of the Trump administration on the U.S. economy and inflation. The market expects future rate cuts to be slower, more cautious, and less frequent;
2. Dec 30: A16z Crypto supported a lawsuit filed by the Blockchain Association, DeFi Education Fund, and Texas Blockchain Council, claiming that the IRS and the U.S. Treasury exceeded their authority, violating the Administrative Procedure Act and the Constitution;
3. Dec 30: Placeholder partner Chris Burniske stated that despite BTC’s volatility, ETHBTC, SOLETH, and SOLBTC performed excellently, suggesting that liquidity factors at year-end may be driving this, as people prepare their books for 2024;
4. Dec 31: GitHub data showed that the autonomous agent framework Eliza developed by A16z’s team topped GitHub’s December trending charts, with a total of 7,015 stars;
5. Jan 3: Aave founder Stani Kulechov announced that innovative contracts would be launched on Lens Network, a modular social function network, including features like ICOs, new ERC20 flavors, novel bonding curves, and more;
6. Jan 3: Polymarket, a cryptocurrency prediction platform, estimated a 77% likelihood of a U.S. Solana ETF launch by 2025, with VanEck’s research head Matthew Sigel suggesting the probability was underestimated;
7. Dec 30: MicroStrategy bought 2,138 BTC for about $209 million, achieving a 47.8% quarterly gain. As of December 29, 2024, MicroStrategy holds 446,400 BTC at an average price of $62,428.

Macroeconomic Insights

1. Dec 28: Nate Geraci, president of ETF Store, stated that Volatility Shares submitted an application to the SEC for a Solana futures-based ETF;
2. Dec 30: Former German Finance Minister Christian Lindner called for Bitcoin to be included in the European Central Bank and Deutsche Bundesbank reserves;
3. Dec 31: According to CME’s “Fed Watch,” there is an 11.8% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in January, with an 88.2% chance of maintaining current rates;
4. Jan 2: Goldman Sachs revised its U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut forecast for 2025 from 100 to 75 basis points;
5. Jan 3: European Central Bank’s council member Stournaras expects ECB rates to drop to 2% by fall 2025;
6. Jan 3: U.S. bank reserves fell to $2.89 trillion, the lowest since October 2020, a crucial factor in the Fed’s decision to continue shrinking its balance sheet.

ETF

From December 30 to January 3, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $255.3 million. As of January 3, GBTC (Grayscale) had a net outflow of $21.47 billion, while IBIT (BlackRock) held $54.31 billion in Bitcoin. The total market value of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs is $113.57 billion. Ethereum spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $72 million.

Looking Ahead

Events and Token Unlocks

1. Jan 6 — Mar 23, 2025: a16z GAMES will host SPEEDRUN 004 Accelerator in San Francisco.
2. Jan 7–8, 2025: METAVSUMMIT in Dubai, UAE.
3. Jan 11, 2025: Move DevCon in Shenzhen, China.
4. Feb 18–20, 2025: Consensus Hong Kong, hosted by CoinDesk.

Project Updates

1. Jan 6, 2025: The pre-sale of the AI agent protocol BAD on BNB Chain will launch, with 35% of tokens airdropped within the Floki ecosystem.
2. Jan 7, 2025: Synthetix’s Base LP incentive program will continue for liquidity providers on the Base chain, offering rewards including 80,000 SNX and 100,000 USDC.

Token Unlocks

1. Jan 6, 2025: Kaspa (KAS) will unlock 182 million tokens worth approximately $21.39 million, or 0.72% of circulating supply.
2. Jan 7, 2025: Ethereum Name Service (ENS) will unlock 1.46 million tokens worth about $54.66 million, or 1.46% of circulating supply.
3. Jan 9, 2025: GMT will unlock 92.22 million tokens worth around $14.99 million, or 1.54% of circulating supply.
4. Jan 10, 2025: Cheelee (CHEEL) will unlock 11.66 million tokens worth approximately $95.26 million, or 1.17% of circulating supply.

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