Bitcoin ETFs See Big Outflows as Grayscale Select, ZEN Bucks the Trend|Hotcoin Research Market Insight: December 23–27, 2024

Cryptocurrency Market Performance

Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $3.45 trillion, with BTC accounting for 57.03% at $1.97 trillion. The market capitalization of stablecoins is $205.8 billion with a 7-day increment of 0.7%, of which USDT accounts for 67.82%.

The price of BTC has been range-bound this week, with BTC now at $96,782; ETH has been range-bound, with a current price of $3,426.

Most of CoinMarketCap’s top 200 items declined while some went up, including ZEN, which is up 100.34% in 7 days; FAX, up 66.62% in 7 days; and BGB, up 92.56% in 7 days.

For the week, U.S. Bitcoin Spot ETF net outflow: $457 million; U.S. Ether Spot ETF net inflow: $329.1 million.

The ‘Fear & Greed Index’ for December 27th was 74 (equal to last week), and this week’s sentiments: 7 days of greed.

Market Forecast: Due to last week’s Federal Reserve statement about reducing interest rate cuts next year, coupled with the Christmas holiday season, the market is expected to show average performance this week. The U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF has seen significant net outflow, while stablecoins have recently experienced slight increases in issuance. The market is expected to continue consolidating. Hot sectors to watch include AI agents.

Understanding the present

A look back at the week’s big events

1. On December 23, Securitize, the broker-dealer for BlackRock’s BUIDL tokenized money market fund, has submitted a governance proposal calling for the addition of BUIDL tokens as a reserve asset for Frax’s upcoming relaunch of the Frax USD stablecoin;

2. On December 23, Trump appointed Bo Hines, a former college football player and Republican House candidate, to serve as executive director of the President’s Digital Assets Advisory Council, which Trump has dubbed the ‘Crypto Council’;

3. On December 23, according to official news, stablecoin issuer Usual completed a $10 million Series A funding round led by Binance Labs and Kraken Ventures, with participation from OKX Ventures, IOSG Ventures, Coinbase Ventures, GSR, Amber Group and others;

4. On December 23, Justin Sun, founder of TRON and member of the HTX Global Advisory Board, said in a social media post that “the AI token issuance function of SunPump, the Meme coin issuance platform of the Tron network, is now online”;

5. On December 25, Sonic Labs (formerly Fantom) announced in a post that its Sonic Gateway is now online. Users can now bridge USDC, EURC, WETH, and FTM from Ether to Sonic, according to official sources;

6. Greeks.live: Options market data shows a significant decline in market activity, with participants’ optimism for January weakening.

7. On December 25, Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said that Russian companies have begun using Bitcoin and other digital currencies in international payments. This follows legislative changes permitting such usage as a response to Western sanctions;

8. On December 25, data from the Bank of Korea showed that domestic cryptocurrency investors in South Korea reached 15.59 million at the end of November, or 30% of the country’s total population of about 51.23 million, an increase of 610,000 from the previous year, Yonhap news agency reported;

9. On December 26, Pump Science’s official social media post stated that BIO Protocol will airdrop BIO to URO and RIF holders.

Macroeconomics

1. On December 24, according to market sources, Grayscale filed a Form 8-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for Grayscale Horizen Trust (ZEN);

2. On December 26, according to the CME “FedWatch” data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January next year is 8.6%, and the probability of keeping them unchanged is 91.4%;

3. On December 27, Bitwise filed an application with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to list the Bitcoin Standard Corporations ETF (Bitcoin Standard Corporations ETF).

ETF

According to statistics between December 23rd and December 27th, the U.S. Bitcoin Spot ETF had a net outflow of: $457 million; as of December 27th, GBTC (Grayscale) had a total outflow of: $21.306 billion, and is currently holding $19.521 billion, while IBIT (BlackRock) is currently holding $52.018 billion. The total market capitalization of the U.S. Bitcoin Spot ETF is: $108.99 billion.

The U.S. Ether Spot ETF had a net inflow of: $329.1 million.

Foreseeing the Future

Upcoming Events

1. CoinDesk will be hosting Consensus Hong Kong on February 18–20, 2025 in Hong Kong.

Project Progress

1. Kelp DAO, an Ethernet liquidity repledging platform, has a December 31, 2024 snapshot date for its first airdrop season (airdrops at 10% of total supply);

2. December 31 is the deadline to claim the airdropped PRCL tokens from the Solana-based real estate trading protocol Parcl;

3. The re-staking protocol Swell Network has launched Swellchain and will distribute 1.25 million SWELL tokens to users who did cross-chain and hold assets on Swellchain within the past two weeks. Users must complete the cross-chain process by 8:00 on December 31 to qualify for their share;

4. The second XP season of Paradex, the decentralized perpetual derivatives Layer2 application chain, will run from January 3 to July 31, 2025.

Important Events

1.New European Banking Authority (EBA) ‘travel rules’ guidance for crypto-assets will be enforced on December 30, 2024;

2. The EU’s Markets in Crypto Assets Act MiCA guidance for cryptocurrency exchanges and other firms operating in the EU zone will be enforced from December 31st onwards;

3. The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) has released a consultation on the disclosure of crypto-asset risks by banks, in line with its prudential standards finalized in December 2022 for handling such risks. The consultation proposes a standardized disclosure table and template for banks to report their crypto-asset risks, with a planned implementation date of January 1, 2025;

4. U.S. ETF provider Global X has announced that its Bitcoin and Ethereum ETPs launched in Europe will have zero fees until January 3, 2025, after which fees will be set at 0.29%. These products were initially listed in March 2022 on the Frankfurt Xetra Exchange and the SIX Swiss Stock Exchange in Zurich with a total expense ratio of 0.65%;

5. FTX and its affiliated debtors announced that the court-approved Chapter 11 Plan of Reorganization will officially take effect on January 3, 2025. The first round of distributions will begin within 60 days of the effective date for approved creditors in the Convenience Classes. FTX has partnered with crypto custodians BitGo and exchange Kraken to provide asset distribution services to retail and institutional clients. To qualify for the first round of distributions, users must complete the following steps by January 3, 2025: log in to the FTX Debtor Client Portal, complete KYC verification, submit the required tax forms, and open an account with BitGo or Kraken.

Token Unlocking

1. COTI (COTI) will unlock 2 billion tokens on January 1, valued at approximately $244 million, or 45.12% of the outstanding volume;

2. Orbler (ORBR) will unlock 37.41 million tokens on January 2, valued at approximately $8.61 million, or 1.87% of the outstanding volume;

3. TARS AI (TAI) will unlock 28.89 million tokens on January 2, valued at approximately $10.16 million, or 2.89% of the outstanding volume.

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