December Fed rate cut stabilized? BTC may break new highs by year-end ｜Hotcoin Research Market Insight: December 9–13, 2024

Cryptocurrency Market Performance

Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $3.64 trillion, with BTC accounting for 55.15% at $2.01 trillion. The market capitalization of stablecoins is $202.1 billion with a 7-day increment of 2.66%, of which USDT accounts for 69.46%.

The price of BTC has been rising upwards this week, with BTC now at $102,182; ETH has been range-bound, with a current price of $3,934.

Most of CoinMarketCap’s top 200 items are down, with a small portion being up, including BGB (up 42.07% in 7 days), BabyDoge (up 93.46% in 7 days), and SUSHI (up 34.97% in 7 days).

For the week, U.S. Bitcoin Spot ETF net inflow: $2.174 billion; U.S. Ether Spot ETF net inflow: $846.1 million.

The ‘Fear & Greed Index’ on December 14th was 83 (lower than last week’s index), and this week’s sentiment: 5 days of greed and 2 days of extreme greed.

According to CME’s ‘FedWatch’, the probability of the Fed leaving current rates unchanged through December is 3.3%, and the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 96.7%.

Market forecast: Stable coins continue to be issued. ETFs are net inflows, coupled with the Fed’s interest rate cut expectations, BTC may continue upwards. You can focus on the AI track.

Understanding Now

Review of the week’s big events

1.On December 9, Trump: there is no plan to ask Powell to resign as chairman of the Federal Reserve;

2. On December 9, DEXX stolen funds are now being transferred to Tornado Cash, with ~1,000 ETH deposited so far, according to Scam Sniffer monitoring;

3. Morgan Stanley: the Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December and January next year;

4. On December 11, Solana announced that the inaugural Solana AI Hackathon is now live, aimed at building AI agents and tools on Solana, powered by SEND AI and supported by leading teams in the Solana ecosystem. Prizes range from $5,000 to $30,000, encouraging serious Crypto x AI projects that can attract venture capital or launch their own tokens. Submissions will open on December 15 and will be made through a form where project teams can provide all project details, including a GitHub codebase, a 2-minute demo/pitch video, a 10-page pitch document, and more;

5. On December 11, Microsoft’s major shareholders opposed the company’s Bitcoin investment proposal, according to poll results.

Microsoft’s board of directors had urged shareholders to reject a recommendation by the National Center for Public Policy Research that suggested the company invest 1 percent of its total assets in Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation.

At the annual meeting, MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor gave a three-minute speech to try to convince Microsoft shareholders to support the proposal. Microsoft’s largest shareholders are institutional investors, including Vanguard Pilot and BlackRock;

6. On December 11, Ripple Labs CEO Brad Garlinghouse said in a social media post that “Ripple stablecoin RLUSD has received final approval from the New York Department of Financial Services (NYDFS). When RLUSD goes live on exchanges, you’ll hear about it first from Ripple;

7. On December 13, CNBC’s Jim Cramer asked Trump in a television interview today, as reported by TheBlock, “Are you still embracing cryptocurrencies and considering building a strategic reserve of bitcoin in the crypto space?” Trump replied, “I think so, we’re going to do some great things with cryptocurrency because we don’t want other big countries to take the lead, other countries are embracing it and we want to be the leader”.

Macroeconomics

1. On December 12, the U.S. SEC was seeking public comment on the NYSE listing of the Bitwise Bitcoin and Ether ETF, a proposed spot cryptocurrency index fund comprised of BTC and ETH, according to a public filing;

2. On December 12, Coinbase prepared to take down Tether’s USDT stablecoin in Europe, according to Cointelegraph. Coinbase said it will evaluate the stablecoin’s reablement service for MiCA compliance at a later date. As European cryptocurrency regulations approach their implementation deadline, cryptocurrency trading platforms in Europe are preparing to take down non-compliant stablecoins in the region;

3. On December 13, Musk revealed that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) had issued a settlement demand to him, requiring him to accept a fine with other conditions within 48 hours or face a number of charges related to the “purchase, sale, and disclosure of shares of Twitter.” The SEC is investigating whether Musk engaged in securities fraud prior to his acquisition of Twitter, now X, in 2022, including his sale of Tesla stock and purchase of Tesla shares. The SEC is investigating whether Musk committed securities fraud prior to his acquisition of Twitter (now X) in 2022, including whether his sale of Tesla stocks and purchase of Twitter shares violated his disclosure obligations;

4. On December 13, according to CME’s “Fed Watch,” the probability that the Federal Reserve will leave current interest rates unchanged through December is 3.3%, and the probability of a 25 basis point cut in interest rates is 96.7%.

ETF

According to statistics, during the period of Dec. 9-Dec. 13, the U.S. Bitcoin Spot ETF had a net inflow: $2.174 billion; GBTC (Grayscale) had a total outflow of: $20.999 billion as of Dec. 13, and is currently holding $21.484 billion, while IBIT (BlackRock) is currently holding $54.051 billion. The total market capitalization of the U.S. Bitcoin Spot ETF is: $116.868 billion.

The U.S. Ether Spot ETF had a net inflow of: $846.1 million.

Foreseeing the Future

Upcoming Events

1. CoinDesk will host Consensus Hong Kong on February 18–20, 2025 in Hong Kong.

Project Progress

1. Avalanche9000 will launch its main network on December 16;

2. Bitcoin scaling solution Stacks announced that it will deploy sBTC in two phases, with the first phase of the mainnet launching on December 16, 2024, opening up a Bitcoin deposit functionality;

3. kakarot, the Starknet-based zkEVM network, has abandoned the deployment of Starknet, and kakarot on the Starknet Sepolia test network will be shut down on December 16, 2024;

4. The Swan Chain will launch the SWAN Token TGE on December 16th with a total supply of 1 billion SWAN tokens, of which 20% will be allocated to early adopters and future community reward airdrops, 20% to investors, 20% to the DAO treasury, 25% to the eco-fund, and 15% to key developers and team members;

5. The Ether L2 Taiko Season 2 will run from September 17 — December 16, 2024, and will offer a reward of 6 million TAIKO tokens (5 million for participants and 1 million for DApps);

6. The modular blockchain Sophon will go live on the mainnet on December 18th. In October, Binance Labs announced an investment in Sophon for an undisclosed amount.

Important Events

1. Hong Kong will introduce the Stablecoin Bill into the Legislative Council for first reading on 18 December. Under the proposed licensing regime, a person will be required to obtain a license from the Monetary Authority (MA) to conduct any of the following activities: issue fiat stabilized coins in Hong Kong in the course of its business; issue fiat stabilized coins claiming to be anchored to the Hong Kong Dollar‘s value in the course of its business; or actively promote the issuance of its fiat stabilized coins to the public in Hong Kong. In order to effectively implement the regime, the Bill also proposes to give the MA the necessary regulatory, investigative and enforcement powers.

Token Unlocking

1. Fusionist (ACE) will unlock 3.33 million tokens on December 18th, valued at approximately $9.62 million, or 2.26% of the outstanding volume;

2. Polyhedra Network (ZKJ) will unlock 15.5 million tokens on December 19th, valued at approximately $31.03 million, or 1.55% of the outstanding volume;

3. Pixels (PIXEL) will unlock 53.55 million tokens on December 19th, valued at approximately $12.81 million, or 1.07% of the outstanding volume;

4. Bittensor (TAO) will unlock 216,000 tokens on December 21st, valued at approximately $125 million, or 1.03% of the outstanding volume.

About Us

Hotcoin Research, as the core investment research department of Hotcoin, is dedicated to providing comprehensive and professional analysis of the crypto market. Our goal is to offer clear market insights and practical operational guidance for investors at all levels. Our professional content includes “Play to Earn Web3” tutorial series, in-depth analysis of crypto market trends, detailed analysis of potential projects, and real-time market observations. Whether you are a newcomer exploring the crypto world or a seasoned investor seeking deep insights, Hotcoin is your reliable partner for understanding and seizing market opportunities.

Risk Disclaimer

The crypto market is highly volatile, and investment involves risks. We strongly advise investors to fully understand these risks and operate within a strict risk management framework to ensure the safety of their funds.

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