Probability of Fed cutting rates in December, what is next for crypto? ｜Hotcoin Research Market Insight: November 25–29, 2024

Cryptocurrency Market Performance

Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $3.4 trillion, with BTC accounting for 56.73% at $1.93 trillion. The market capitalization of stablecoins is $192.5 billion with a 7-day increment of 1.66%, of which USDT accounts for 69.7%.

The price of BTC has been range-bound this week, with BTC now at $96,800; ETH has been oscillating upwards, now at $3,591.

Most of the CoinMarketCap top 200 tokens are up, including ENS, which is up 71.36% in 7 days, SAND which is up 67.44% in 7 days, XCH which is up 84.34% in 7 days, and KSM which is up 66.49% in 7 days, while some others went down.

Last week, we mentioned that as BTC was breaking through $100,000, the rotation effect of each sector gradually came to the fore, with Ether-dominated track leaders all seeing gains this week.

For the week, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF net outflows: $273 million; U.S. Ether spot ETF net inflows: $216.1 million.

The ‘Fear & Greed Index’ for November 30th was 84 (lower than last week’s). Sentiment for the week: 5 days were greedy and 2 days were extremely greedy.

According to CME’s ‘FedWatch’: the probability of a cumulative 25 bps rate cut is 70%, and with ETF inflows and continued issuance of stablecoins, look for a bullish crypto move in December.

Understanding the present

A look back at the week’s big events

1. WalletConnect announced that WCT airdrop claims and pledges will open on November 26th;

2. On Nov. 25, US MSTR premiums have returned to 2021 bull market levels;

3. Andrew Kang: The DeSci space is now like the DeFi era of early 2019;

4. Willy Woo: there seems to be a huge amount of money flowing into the Bitcoin network right now, as of November 25th;

5. Balancer: Balancer v3 will be available soon;

6. Movement Network Foundation announces economics of MOVE tokens, with 60% of the total allocated to the community;

7. Pump.fun’s tokens fell after it disabled the live streaming feature;

8. Avalanche launches the Avalanche9000 upgrade on its test network and a $40 million funding program;

9. On November 26, top trader Eugene has stopped out long positions, advising caution;

10. Market news: US court rules sanctions against Tornado Cash smart contract illegal;

11. On November 27, ZKasino team misappropriated users’ funds to continue leveraging long ETH, with an average leverage cost of $3402 USD;

12. Glassnode: many long-term holders are still waiting for a higher price before releasing BTC back into circulation;

13. On November 28, the DeFi sector of cryptocurrencies rose in general, with ENA up 22.06% in 24 hours;

14. Greeks.live researcher: the options market currently sees a more explosive rise in ETH;

15. Pump Science: will focus on RIF and URO this year, new tokens will be launched next year;

16. The ETH/BTC exchange rate continues to rise, having rebounded 18.42% from its lows;

17. Sushi goes live with Dojo Agent and Tweet Tokens, a feature that allows you to tokenize tweets or create MEME coins on Twitter;

18. Binance Labs has announced an investment in Astherus;

19. Worldcoin launches its new World ID passport authentication system, piloted in select Asian and South American countries;

20. SecondLane shelves a 1% stake in Pump.fun for $15 million;

21. Clanker: will release user fee share proceeds on December 4th;

22. Slow Fog Cosine: DEXX attackers again exchanged various tokens for SOL early this morning, not yet transferred.

Macroeconomics

1. On November 27, Bitwise announced that the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE Arca) had filed a petition to launch a Bitwise Exchange Traded Product (ETP) that would cover investments in both spot Bitcoin and Ethereum, weighted by market capitalization. According to the filing, the ETP will hold both assets directly; the launch of the ETP is pending approval of a 19b-4 filing and the effectiveness of an S-1 registration statement;

2. On November 28, Bloomberg reported that President-elect Donald Trump’s transition team has interviewed Paul Atkins, a veteran financial regulator and the think tank behind the conservative financial community, as a candidate for chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Atkins is one of the strongest contenders to replace outgoing SEC Chairman Gary Gensler, according to sources;

3. On November 28, according to CME’s “FedWatch”: the probability that the Fed will leave current interest rates unchanged through December is 30%, and the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point cut is 70%;

4. On November 28, ECB Governing Council member Villeroy & Boch said that there is a strong case for a rate cut in December;

5. On November 29, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba restructured the ruling party’s approach to Web3 and cryptocurrency policymaking, according to a report by Crypto News. The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) will dissolve its current Web3 Project Team (PT) to establish a dedicated agency within the party’s Digital Society Promotion Department. This new entity will be led by Akihisa Shiozaki, the former Secretary-General of the Web3 PT. Digital Minister Akira Taira announced the initiative during a forum on November 27, signaling a more focused and strategic approach to advancing Web3 and cryptocurrency initiatives in Japan.

ETF

According to statistics, during Nov. 25-Nov. 29, the U.S. Bitcoin Spot ETF had a net outflow: $273 million; as of Nov. 29, GBTC (Grayscale) had a total outflow of: $20.474 billion, and is currently holding $20.918 billion, while IBIT (BlackRock) is currently holding $48.088 billion. The total market capitalization of the U.S. Bitcoin Spot ETF is: $107.787 billion.

The U.S. Ether Spot ETF had a net inflow of: $216.1 million.

Foreseeing the Future

Upcoming Events

1. The Block will host the Web3 Summit “Emergence” on December 5–6 at the Prague Convention Center in the Czech Republic, which will facilitate the connection between technology and capital, bridging Wall Street and the crypto space The summit will bring together a diverse group of representatives across industries and chains to discuss ETFs and asset management, crypto regulatory uncertainty, and more. In partnership with Foresight Ventures, Emergence will provide attendees with insights on driving cryptocurrency development in Asia and will bridge the gap between East and West in terms of capital and talent;

2. Parallel Blockchain Monad will host the second phase of the Madness competition in Seoul, South Korea from December 6–8;

3. Blockchain Week Taipei will be held from December 12–14, 2024.

Project Progress

1. Anzen Finance, the publisher of the RWA stablecoin USDz, will launch the public sale of ANZ on December 2 on Fjord Foundry and Starship, along with Anzen’s Q1 Community Airdrop.

2. The privacy public chain Namada mainnet genesis (phase 1) is scheduled for next week (sometime between December 2 and 6);

3. The Web3 game distribution infrastructure MATR1X will make an important announcement on December 5, related to veMax, or hinting at the opening of the MAX pledge feature;

4. The Ether L2 Taiko Season 2, which lasts from September 17 — December 16, 2024, will offer a reward of 6 million TAIKO tokens, of which 5 million are for participants and 1 million are for DApps.

Important Events

1. The Chicago Board Options Exchange (Cboe) will launch the first cash-settled index options related to spot Bitcoin on December 2, based on the new Cboe Bitcoin U.S. ETF Index. These options will be regulated by the SEC, and in addition to being cash-settled, these index options will offer European-style strikes;

2. The South African FSCA has yet to reinstate the Banxso license for South African exchanges, with a tentative re-examination scheduled for December 4th.

Token Unlocking

1. Sleepless Ai (AI) will unlock 10.62 million tokens on Dec. 4, valued at about $8.15 million, or 1.06% of the float;

2. Gravity (G) will unlock 121 million tokens on December 5, valued at approximately $4.43 million, or 1.01% of the circulating volume;

3. Jito (JTO) will unlock 136 million tokens on December 7, valued at approximately $509 million, or 13.65% of the outstanding volume.

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