Writer’s twitter: @qiuyue_analyst; WeChat official account: worldeye2020

Review: @Jeffthedogyo (twitter)

Translation: @biubiubird (twitter)

Publication: Bitmidas

Community: discord.gg/nDf8e7RAhA

Shocking CPI Statistics

On Mar.17th, 2022, The Federal Reserve of the U.S. announced raising the interest rate between 0.25%-0.5%. The news wasn’t a shock to the market as it’s already priced in with similar expectations. After that, commodities such as gold, silver, crude oil, BTC, and other crypto-assets bounced back in varying degrees.

However, this is largely an initial test carried out by the Fed. The following rise in interest rate would be hard to imagine.

Since the epidemic, Fed issued unlimited Q.E., pushing up the price of commodities. CPI inflation rate rose 0.8 month-over-month in February of 2022.

However, CPI didn’t show a sign of declining since Mar.17th. On the contrary, the war between Ukraine and Russia triggered the sanction from the West, driving up CPI and rising energy prices such as crude oil and natural gas. Brent crude oil reached as high as $140, and WTI crude oil, $130.5.

Brent crude oil candlestick chart

WTI crude oil candlestick chart

In modern society, expensive energy price means high cost in transportation and chemical industries, which press up the price of raw materials and then the price of overall goods and inflation.

As long as the energy price keeps high, CPI won’t drop quickly. Now US CPI is close to the figure in the 1970s-1980s when the U.S. entered a terrible prolonged recession.

The 1970s-1980s recession was caused by several factors:

1. The U.S. suffered from a severe deficit and insufficient gold reserves due to the Vietnam and North Korea war. In August 1971, President Nixon announced the abolition of the Bretton Woods system, an act that was essentially a breakdown of the international agreement. This decision led to a credibility crisis of U.S. dollars. Then dollar continued falling while the price of raw materials in international trade kept rising. The U.S. then was trapped in high inflation.

2. In 1972, the global food harvest was affected by El Niño. Suddenly, the food supply plummeted, and food costs skyrocketed. In October 1973, the fourth middle east war broke out, and Saudi Arabia and other countries reduced crude oil production. The U.S. was pro-Israel; later Arab countries used a crude oil embargo against the U.S. Since OPEC, including Arab nations, was the foremost global oil exporter, the move against the U.S. brought an oil price surge.

3. Mandatory wage and price control policies strongly limited personal income and greatly hampered consumption. Supply was distorted by hoarding and speculation. Lifting the control resulted in market failure. Loose monetary policy, aggressive fiscal policies, extreme weather, wars, energy crisis, and food crisis brought the U.S. to stagnation. U.S. economy fell into recession in the next ten years, leaving a generation in a helpless maze.

On the Verge of Stagflation

Now we come to a situation quite similar to the 1970s-1980s, including monetary policies, wars, food crises, etc.

First, the root cause of the clash between Ukraine and Russia is a contest between U.S. and Russia. Though not a belligerent country, the U.S. provided weapons to Ukraine and issued sanctions on Russia. The U.S., in essence, is in the war against Russia.

This state of the situation is not predictable, as it will escalate and drag the U.S. into war at any time.

Second, the U.S. kicked Russia out of SWIFT and imposed a sanction of over 1.2 trillion dollars, freezing about 300 billion gold and reserves of Russian oversea assets, 50% of Russian international reserve (almost 640 billion).

In the short term, the U.S. won by wielding its financial power. The act, however, will do more harm than good to the credibility of the U.S. and its dollar system. Other countries begin to worry if their foreign reserve is safe and consequently reduce the allocation of dollar assets.

Third, Russia and Ukraine are both major exporters of wheat. Their annual export amount to a quarter of the total wheat production worldwide. War inevitably delayed the spring sow.

Before the war, Ukraine had a sowing field of 15 million hectares. After Mar.23rd, the area was reduced to merely 7 million hectares. The wheat harvest will be reduced by half or even more. World agriculture supply will see a huge gap. The food crisis usually follows the war, pushing up food prices.

As a ‘’copy’’ of the inflation rate and background of the 1970s-1980s, U.S. economic growth is nearly halted. If it enters stagflation, the U.S. is not far from another recession.

A More Radical Approach

Now the US is confronted with 2 problems: near-stagflation and Midterm Election in 2022.

The Midterm Election will be held on Nov.8th. 435 seats of the Senate and 34 seats from the house of representatives will be up for election. 39 governors’ positions will be refilled.

This election is crucial for Biden. If inflation could not be contained before the election, then Biden’s popularity will decline, though the disapproval rate has already been over 50%.

Biden won the most votes in US history, but he also ranks high on a list of the presidents who lost approvals at a fast speed. Inflation and material shortage reduced the approval rate to merely 41%.

Against the Ukraine-Russia conflict, there are only 2 choices left to control inflation and reduce CPI.

1. Biden and the EU lift sanctions on Russia and allied with OPEC countries to increase oil production. In this way, CPI and energy prices will fall instantly.

2. Another option is a mad increase of the interest rate by at least 7 times. This will drain hot money from the market and squeeze bubbles so that price of goods and commodities will fall and so do CPI. As this method cannot reduce inflation and resolve material shortages instantly, putting sanctions on Russia appears to be a fast-acting remedy to win more votes. Biden wouldn’t be willing to lift sanctions. He could resort to pumping interest rates plus shrinking the balance sheet to get liquidity out of the market.

To prepare for the next election while keeping the US from stagnation and recession, the Biden government is likely to use more radical means to contain or delay stagnation.

Raising the interest rate on Mar.17th, 2022 is just an appetizer used to test the market and the impact on CPI. Through my tabletop exercise, the next interest rate rise is likely to start with at least 50 bp. In addition, Fed could start reducing its balance sheet very soon, probably using a combination of both.

Many people noticed the impact on the financial market by adding more interest rates but ignored the likelihood of shrinking the balance sheet. According to Bernanke, Fed is going to reduce 1trillion this year and 3 trillion within 3 years from the balance sheet. This could be massive liquidity drainage from the market, equivalent to an additional 3–4 times interest rate hikes.

The impact on the financial market is severe, the crypto market in particular.

On Mar.23rd, 2020, Fed announced unlimited QE, buying 75 billion bonds and 50 billion MBS daily and setting the daily and fixed repo rate at 0. Hot money rushed into the financial market, including crypto. BTC was pumped to a new high.

Before unlimited QE, BTC price was on a downward track. When hot money flows into crypto, BTC began to consolidate and then take off. The highest price came to $6,9000.

Hence, the deep reason for this BTC bull market is not self-driven, rather it is pushed up by speculative capital.

Raising 25 bp this time had a little bearish effect on crypto. Instead, the market took it as the last negative news and began to bounce back.

However, to increase the interest rate of 50bp every time for 7 times plus shrinking the balance sheet is like interest rate hikes 11–12 times. It will be no other than a siphon effect on the liquidity of crypto, forcing the price to plummet.

The next FOMC meeting is going to be held on May 5, 2022. Before that, BTC has a window of a bull run. Most of the bulls pump the price in this period before the storm, starting from Mar.16th.

If you invest in crypto, I hope what I learned from the market would help you grasp as many opportunities within this interval.

What should be taken more seriously is the fact that Fed’s tightening monetary policy led to stagflation in the last 70s-80s, the situation we are now facing is even worse.

As the US imposes sanctions on Russia’s gold and foreign exchange reserves, other countries are proactive in diversifying their basket and signing bilateral swap agreements (BSAs). Fed’s decision might not take up as much liquidity as before. Much more liquidity will spread into relatively more reliable asset types, and most of them will choose non-sovereign financial assets, such as gold. BTC is of this kind. So I keep an optimistic view of the cryptos.

(This graph is only for illustration, not prediction of any kind. Arrows are drawn randomly with no implication.)

There will be pumps and drops in 1–2 years. In the longer term, BTC will get stronger as the real-world financial market gets worse.

中文版

作者：秋月 (twitter:@qiuyue_analyst); 公众号: worldeye2020

审校：Jeffrey （@Jeffthedogyo）

翻译：biubiubird （@biubiubird）

媒体：@bitmidas 

交流：discord.gg/nDf8e7RAhA

恐怖的 CPI 数据

在 2022–3–17 的美联储加息决议公布上涨 25 个基点到 0.5%后，市场一致认为美联储的加息比较温和，属于市场可承受的范围，因此加息之后黄金、白银、原油、BTC 等加密货币不但没有下跌，反而出现了不同程度的上涨。

然而，这只是美联储对市场的一次试探，后续的加息，每一次加息的幅度都会超出市场的想象！

因为自疫情以来美联储无限 QE 推升了大宗商品的价格，导致 CPI 持续上升，2022–3–10 日美国 CPI 月率已经高达 0.8！

而在美联储 3 月 17 日开启加息后，CPI 并没有出现明显的回落，相反随着俄乌战争，美欧对俄罗斯能源的制裁，让 CPI 随着原油与天然气等能源价格一路上涨，布伦特原油最高触及140 美元，WTI 原油最高到了 130.5 美元。

布伦特原油走势图WTI 原油走势图

而在现代社会里，能源的上涨意味着将带动能源、化工的价格上涨，这二者上涨又会带动其它生产资料的上涨，从而带动整体物价上涨，推升通货膨胀！

只要能源价格高居不下，CPI 就很难快速回落，当前美国 0.8 的 CPI 已经接近上世纪 70、80 年代的水平，而那时正是美国进入滞胀期，大衰退的阶段。

在上世纪 70 至 80 年代的美国滞胀由多重因素导致：

1. 由于越南与朝鲜战争导致美国赤字严重、黄金储备不足，1971 年 8 月，尼克松总统宣布单方面废除布雷顿森林体系，这种单方面废除布雷顿森林体系，其实本质上就是违约了，所以导致美元出现了信任危机，随后美元持续下跌，同时国际贸易的原材料价格上涨推升了美国的通胀水平。

2. 1972 年由于厄尔尼诺现象全球粮食歉收导致其供给骤降、粮食成本大幅上升；1973 年10 月第四次中东战争爆发，由于美国政府支持以色列，沙特阿拉伯等国家降低原油产量并随后采用原油禁运对抗美国，由于当时沙特阿拉伯等 OPEC 国家为全球原油的主要供给来源，因此原油带动其他能源价格一同骤升。

3. 实行强制性工资价格控制两个经济政策的颁布，限制了大众的薪资与购买欲，以及流动性，扭曲了供给，人为囤积居奇导致供给短缺，管制取消后价格彻底失控。

宽松的货币政策+激进的财政政策+极端天气+战争因素+原油危机+食品危机，这一系列的因素+美国的决策失误，让通胀升级到了滞胀，美国经济陷入衰退，时间长达十年，让那一代的美国人充满了迷茫和无助。

美国正在滞胀的末日边缘

当前，无论是货币政策，还是战争因素，原油危机，和食品危机，都与上世纪 70~80 年代十分相似。

首先，俄乌冲突的背后是美国在与俄罗斯博弈，虽然还未直接参与战争，但通过全方位的制裁和对乌克兰的武器援助，在实质上来讲美国已经是参战国了，且已经与俄罗斯形成了水火不容的二元对立上。

这种间接参战的发展是不可控的，其方式随时会随着局势的发展而升级，随时会把美国拖进战争泥潭。

其次，美国将俄罗斯踢出 SWIFT 系统，并对俄罗斯的制裁超过了 1.2 万亿美元，其中对俄罗斯在境外的 3000 亿美元的黄金和外汇资产进行冻结，占俄罗斯国际储备总额（6400 亿美元）的近 50%。

从短期来看美国通过其金融影响力在金融战上获得了赢面，但从长期来看，这是损害美元信用体系和美国的国家信誉，各国都会担忧自身的外汇储备是否安全，从而减少美元美债及其相关资产的配置。

最后，俄罗斯和乌克兰都是小麦等农作物的主要生产国与出口国，这两个国家加起来约占全球小麦出口总量的四分之一，但因为战争，必然会耽搁春播周期。

战争爆发之前乌克兰播种面积预期为 1500 万公顷，但到 3 月 23 日播种面积可能仅有 700万公顷，那么等到收获季节，减产 50%以上甚至更多将是必然，世界粮食将会出现巨大缺口，战争过后的危机将会是粮食危机，粮食的减产必然会大幅推升粮食的价格。

从美国的通胀水平以及所处的环境来看，几乎已经是上世纪 70~80 年代的复制版，且美国的经济已经陷入停滞，美国再次处于滞胀的边缘，一旦陷入滞胀对于美国当前的处境来说，就等于是进入到了末日。

必将用疯狂的手段遏制

现在美国面临两大问题：通胀往滞胀的边缘和 2022 中期选举。

2022 年 11 月 8 日举行美国中期选举，同时还有众议院所有 435 个席位和参议院 100 个席位中的 34 个席位将展开角逐，39 个州长级职位也将成为争夺对象。

这是极为重要的一次选举，若在大选前通胀不能降下来，那么民意满意度就会持续降低，支持率必然不高。

拜登虽然是美国历史上获得普选票最多的总统，但是时至今日他也是支持率下降的最快的总统之一，通货膨胀、物资紧缺等问题接踵而至，拜登的支持率已经跌至 41％。

在俄乌冲突的背景下，要控制通货膨胀、降低 CPI，只有 2 个方法：

1. 拜登政府和欧盟放弃对俄罗斯的制裁，并联合 OPEC 国家增产，那么能源价格就能很快回落， 这就会降低 CPI。

2. 不止 1 次的疯狂加息+缩债，次数至少是 7 次，将市场上的热钱大量抽走，挤压泡沫、从而打压大宗和各类商品的价格，来降低 CPI。

但现在美国国内通胀无法短期内降低、物资紧缺也无法解决；转移矛盾，制裁俄罗斯！获得民意，就成为了拜登提高支持率的首选！

那就可以肯定的，当前的美国政府是不愿意放弃对俄罗斯制裁的，那么就只剩下疯狂加息+缩债，抽走市场上大量资金的办法。

为了准备接下来的选举，以及避免让美国再次进入滞胀而衰退，我认为美联储必然会采用十分疯狂+激进的手段来遏制或拖延滞胀的发生！

因此， 2022–3–17 日的加息只是前戏、开胃菜，用来试探市场的反应，以及试探对 CPI 的灵敏度，我通过沙盘推演，下一次加息开始，加息大概率会是>=50 个基点起步，并且除了加息之外，美联储会尽快的进行缩表，有可能会是加息+缩表一起进行。

市场上很多人都只看到了加息基点高对金融市场会产生影响，但却忽略了缩表的影响。

按目前美联储伯南克流露出来的信息未来 1 年缩表规模将在 1 万亿美元，3 年会缩到 3 万亿美元,这种级别的缩表，会抽走大量的资金，按加息来估算则相当于额外的加息 3~4 次，这对货币流动性的收紧是非常严重的。

这种影响对金融市场的冲击将是十分剧烈的，尤其加密货币市场！

2020年3月23 日，美联储无限 QE，宣布每天都将购买 750 亿美元国债和 500 亿美元机构住房抵押贷款支持证券，每日和定期回购利率报价利率将重设为 0%。而大量的热钱都流入了金融市场，其中热钱流入加密货币市场，让 BTC 及其整个加密货币市场都进入了一个超级大牛市。

可以看到，在美联储宣布无限 QE 之前，BTC 价格还是下跌的，但在美联储宣布之后，热钱开始流入加密货币市场，3 月 31 日之后，BTC 价格开始筑底回升，随着热钱不断地流入，价格也一路攀升最高到了 6.9 万美元。

因此 BTC 及其它加密货币的这轮牛市不是本身走势的爆发，而是大量热钱流入推升而出现的。所以，当加息只有 25 个基点时，对整个加密货币的市场基本没什么影响，市场甚至可以当成是利空出尽的靴子落地，从而进行一次大力度的反弹行情。

可是当未来一年内每一次加息都提升 50 个基点，一年至少有 7 次，加上缩表，等同于有11~12 次，那么这将对加密货币市场造成疯狂的虹吸效应，在抽走大量流动性的同时，会给价格带来巨大的压力。

下一次美联储利率决议时间在 2022–5–5 日左右，在此之前，是 BTC 等加密货币在今年无压力运行的时间窗，大多数多头会趁此之前进行一波多头行情的运作，以避免未来将出现的风暴！从 3 月 16 日开启的这轮上涨就是这个原理。

若你是一名加密货币投资者，当你看过了我这篇分析，知晓了这背后的逻辑后，就可以更容易把控机会和风险的时间。

最后需要特别强调一点的是，上世纪 70~80 美联储由货币宽松转向货币紧缩，导致了滞胀的出现，而本次加息的环境会比上次更加恶劣。

随着美国对俄罗斯的境外黄金和外汇储备进行制裁，各国必然开启了多元化的货币储备，以及双边货币结算和互换协议，那么美联储的加息就算再疯狂，也很难像以前那样抽走所有的资金，会有很多资金分散流入更值得信任的资产上，其中会有不少进入到天然无主权的金融产物上，如黄金，而这个属性对 BTC 等加密货币也同样适用，那么加密货币市场就不会那么悲观，甚至应保持乐观。

对于 1~2 年的走势来说会有一个较大的震荡，但对更长远的未来，将会是随着现实世界的金融越差而越好越高。这图仅是我对这段内容的一种表述方式，但不代表任何预判，箭头所指的价格纯属随机画线，没有任何意义。